965
FXUS63 KAPX 121712
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
112 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing shower chances tonight into Tuesday

- Much more typical mid-October temperatures return for the second
half of the week on into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Yet another warm day across most of northern lower Michigan...
driving by southwest winds out ahead of a slow south moving cold
front currently cutting across the tip of the mitt. Even despite
quite a few clouds this morning, seeing widespread readings in the
60s and 70s for most south of the big bridge. Post-frontal east
winds, thicker clouds, and even a few light showers are keeping
eastern upper considerably cooler...with most areas up that way in
the 50s.

Straits cold front will be temporarily halted on its journey south
tonight as weak wave of low pressure rides east along it. More rapid
southern movement of that cold front expected Tuesday afternoon as
that low exits stage right. More northern stream influences the
second half of this week into the weekend will return our
temperatures to much more normal levels for the middle of October.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower and thunderstorm evolution tonight/Tuesday, followed by
temperature trends and addressing any additional shower potential
for the rest of the period.

Details:

As mentioned, front will essentially stall across northern Michigan
tonight into Tuesday morning as weak shortwave trough and attendant
just as weak surface low ride east along it. Strongest surge of
isentropic upglide/Fgen response and upper jet support looks to
align across the tip of the mitt into eastern upper later tonight
into early Tuesday. Expect showers to be more organized and
widespread in that area, with showers more scattered the further
south one goes. Enough elevated instability to promote some embedded
thunderstorms as well, but definitely not expecting anything too
intense (maybe some small hail under the most intense updrafts?). In
general, looking at quarter to half inch rain totals for those
northern areas...likely less to the south. Locally heavier totals up
to and perhaps over an inch are possible, especially in areas that
see some repeated thunderstorms. Welcome rains indeed, especially
for those across eastern upper Michigan. Still very mild tonight,
with perhaps some areas down near M-55 not getting out of the 60s
(warmer than normal high temperatures). That stalling front will let
southern areas warm up quite significantly again on Tuesday, with
current thermal progs supporting temperatures again topping
70...especially south of M-72. Considerably cooler further north,
with much of eastern upper likely stuck in the 50s.

Reality sets in a bit heading into later Tuesday and Wednesday as
the front gets a boot south with passage of that surface low. While
this will end the rain threat, northwest winds will continue to
usher in cooler conditions, with highs by Wednesday much closer to
were they should be in the 50s and 60s.

Guidance has come in much better agreement sending a rather sharp
northern stream shortwave trough crossing the area Thursday night
into Friday. Now, with that said, this wave is slated to exit much
faster and does not look nearly as robust as some guidance was
suggesting just yesterday. Forcing is rather impressive however,
supporting good chances for showers by Thursday night, with quick
hitting shot of some impressive cold air advection supporting lake
showers on Friday. That cold air will support highs only topping out
in the lower to middle 50s Friday.

Current trends support a mostly dry weekend and beginning of next
week as large area of high pressure builds into and through the
region. Still chilly on Saturday, with again highs mostly in the
lower to middle 50s. Temperatures look to moderate Sunday and Monday
in developing return flow, with current progs supporting highs back
up into the 60s by Monday.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

LIFR at CIU, MVFR at PLN through the afternoon... VFR elsewhere.
Cold front moving through the region tonight into Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms seem a fair bet at CIU and PLN, with
decreasing chances the farther south one goes. Rapidly changing
conditions possible at TAF sites, including drops in visibility
and wind shifts. CIGs to trend MVFR to IFR across the rest of
the region, holding LIFR at CIU, perhaps leaking into PLN and
APN later tonight. Showers to decrease in frequency through
Tuesday morning, with flight category improvements eventually to
follow just beyond the conclusion of the forecast period.

SW winds at TVC and MBL thru evening, more N and E winds at
APN, PLN, and CIU. Varying wind directions anticipated later
tonight into Tuesday morning as surface low pressure moves
overhead... with a sharp turn NW with gusts 15-20kts anticipated
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LMZ341-342.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion