FXUS63 KAPX 222300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...Rain spreads across the area tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Still looking at a few non-
severe thunderstorms tonight.

Pattern synopsis: Well defined shortwave trough rotating across
southern Minnesota early this afternoon, with a developing surface
low pressure running just a bit out ahead of it across northeast
Iowa. Quasi-stationary front running northeast from this low,
stretching across the tip of northern lower Michigan into northern
Lake Huron. Despite proximity of this front, all good deep layer
moisture convergence/sharp H8-H7 theta-e gradient has pivoted more
north and northwest with time today, moving the vast majority of
showers into central Lake Superior. Still plenty of high and mid
level clouds across eastern upper Michigan, with more breaks in that
overcast as one heads further south. Perhaps biggest story remains
those temperatures, with areas in southerly flow south of that front
(no doubt helped along by some of that sun) experiencing readings
well up into the 70s. Of course, readings are considerably cooler
right near the big waters and for areas north of the front

Large scale features become a bit more transient tonight, with
upstream shortwave trough pivoting into the region late tonight.
Attendant surface low leads the charge, cutting across northern
lower Michigan overnight, likely reaching vicinity northern Lake
Huron around sunrise Tuesday. Impressive surge of deep layer
moisture and forcing will bring widespread showers across much of
the area, with even a few rumbles of thunder expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temporal and spatial
resolution of tonights showers and embedded thunderstorms.

Details: Shower threat will be on the increase from west to east
this evening. Latest trends suggest coupling of greatest moisture
convergence and forced ascent will remain northwest of the low level
front as low pressure rides up along it. This would focus the
heaviest rain across far northwest lower into eastern upper Michigan
overnight. Still looking at pretty good shower coverage elsewhere as
precipitable water values surge to over an inch ahead of developing
cold front extending south of the surface low. Thunder threat
remains, particularly south of the big bridge with the development
of upwards of a few hundred joules/kg of elevated cape. A stable
surface layer should prevent any severe weather concerns, this
despite overspreading of a decent mid level jet streak running just
ahead of the shortwave trough. Not looking at overly heavy rain
amounts, although wouldn`t be surprised to see some areas of eastern
upper/far northwest lower easily top half an inch by morning. Gonna
be a rather mild night, especially so across northeast lower
Michigan where temperatures never drop out of the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...Cooler Tuesday with morning showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...Very low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...How fast temperatures rebound Wednesday.

A deepening area of low pressure moves across the region Tuesday
morning leading to additional rain showers to start. This will leave
gradually clearing skies, breezy winds and much cooler temperatures
for Tuesday afternoon. Short wave ridging then takes over Tuesday
night into the first half of Wednesday. Mostly sunny conditions
Wednesday morning will be followed by increasing mid/high level
clouds in the afternoon. In addition, it will be a warmer day for
sure. A short wave moving by to the north along with an associated
weak cold front will increase shower chances Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Highs in the mid 40s to the mid 50s Tuesday.
Warmer again Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging from the mid
50s north to the mid 60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...Much cooler this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Low.

A stronger but somewhat moisture starved cold front moves through
Friday. Then with much cooler air established, low pressure may take
a run at northern Michigan this weekend. It`s still a bit early to
pin down the exact track and extended models are all over the place
in this regard but either a cold rain or maybe even a little bit of
the white stuff appears possible. Cooler than average temperatures
are expected to start off next week with a chance for showers from
another possible system.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Low pressure currently centered over far NE Iowa will track NE
into the Western Great Lakes this evening...thru Northern Lower
Michigan overnight and then push east into SE Ontario on Tuesday.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across all
of Northern Lower Michigan tonight as this system moves thru our
region..dropping conditions to MVFR/IFR. LLWS will develop across
portions of NE Lower Michigan very late tonight into Tuesday
morning just ahead of the surface low. Surface winds will shift
from the south to the NW in the wake of the low and will
strengthen to 20 to 30 kts on Tuesday.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Expect the development of small craft advisory conditions across all
nearshore waters later this evening through Tuesday as low pressure
and its attendant cold front cross the region. Strongest winds will
occur post-frontal when winds become northwest late tonight through
Tuesday afternoon. Wouldn`t be entirely surprised to see an isolated
gale force wind gust on northern Lake Michigan early Tuesday
morning. Showers, and even a few thunderstorms, are expected with
passage of the low. Winds slowly subside Tuesday night, with light
winds and dry weather on Wednesday.


MI...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ017-018-
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LHZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LSZ321-322.



NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion