476
FXUS63 KAPX 081051
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & storms increase thru the day today, esp tonight
  into Thurs. Isolated strong storms are possible along with
  localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

SPC mesoanalysis currently shows plenty of column moisture
pooling across portions of MN and vicinity, poised to make a run
eastward and advect into northern MI today into Thursday.
Combine that with several embedded west to east, or WNW to ESE
perturbations within the flow, convectively agitated or
otherwise, and the chances for showers and thunderstorms
increases through the day today, continuing into Thursday.
Additionally, sfc frontal boundary will slowly sag southward
today into Thursday, with the potential for low pressure system
to slightly organize and ride along this boundary. This could
result in a corridor of enhanced rainfall.

The best combination of low level convergence, upper level
divergence (due to multiple disturbances in the upper level flow),
and progged instability will be tonight into portions of
Thursday, realizing the best potential for heavy rainfall,
localized flooding, and isolated stronger storms capable of
gusty winds. Locales with recent heavy rains (Tip of the Mitt
and portions of Leelanau, Antrim and Charlevoix counties) will
be more sensitive to heavy rain rates and thus a slightly
heightened flooding potential. Showers and storms this morning
and midday will likely focus across Tip of the Mitt and Eastern
Upper, with northwest lower MI in play afternoon/evening and
beyond as convection west of Lake MI tries to develop and move
into northern MI. Looking at the latest model guidance shows a
wide range of outcomes, pretty typical for a system such as
this. One piece of guidance that is quite bullish is the RAP,
which is insistent on a more compact low pressure system riding
the sfc frontal boundary with significant sfc convergence near
and just to the north of this feature and subsequently
unleashing some healthy rain totals across some of the
aforementioned sensitive areas. There are definitely other
pieces of guidance hinting at a healthy rainfall as well, with
the progged environment/sounding tonight into early Thursday
nothing short of tropical. The limiting factor may be the
instability quality, but when the column is this saturated with
warm cloud depths ~12+ kft, efficient and heavy rainfall will
occur with the slightest hints of convective precipitation. This
particular model (RAP) may easily be influenced by convective
feedback producing a more compact low pressure system and
enhanced area of convergence, so will need to monitor model and
observational trends. That does not change the environment in
place tonight into Thursday, just depends on the quality of the
instability and where the best lift sets up.

Showers and storms, capable of locally heavy rain, will continue on
Thursday, a southward trend with time into northern and central
lower Michigan as the forcing and best instability/moisture oozes
southward. Although moisture is quite high and EBWD is pretty
marginal, would not be surprised to see a isolated stronger storm
near Saginaw Bay and vicinity based on the current progged
soundings, given convection initiates. Precipitation chances will
wane through the night, with a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures warm
back into the 80s this weekend as ridging builds across a good chunk
of the CONUS and thus heights rise across N MI. Couple pieces of
deterministic guidance show a piece of energy well to the north and
east with the potential to produce precipitation on Sunday, but
ensemble 50th percentile 24 hr QPF is not impressed with this
potential, and neither is our current fcst for this weekend.

The heat is on...across the central portions of the country next
week as potent/anomalous high pressure builds across the Northern
Plains vicinity. Consequently, this feature will keep northern
Michigan pretty warm at least into early to mid next week (plenty of
80s with some 90s sprinkled in). We`ll be keeping an eye on any
robust pieces of energy on the north and northeast side of this high
pressure system attempting to, or not to, slide into N MI. Right
now, the signal for impactful weather within the ENS suite is
pretty low, at least during the early portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions this morning will give way to increasing chances for
MVFR cigs developing this afternoon into this evening, especially
across KCIU and KPLN. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany these
lower cigs, although uncertainty remains rather significant with
regards to organization, coverage, and timing of these
showers/storms. MVFR (IFR?) cigs and shower/storm threat will expand
south with time this evening into the overnight. Some of these
storms could produce brief periods of heavy rain, resulting in vis
restrictions at times. In addition, some gusty and erratic winds are
possible with any stronger storms. Further adjustments to the
forecast are more than anticipated.&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion