980
FXUS63 KAPX 292336
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
636 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter storm continues to depart tonight.
- Colder with passing weak disturbances set to bring some
accumulating lake snows mid-week.
- Slow moderation heading into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
Cleaning up some of the headlines that were expiring at 7pm. In
the eastern UP, surface obs have been gradually improving vsbys
over the last 1-2 hours. Continued improvement is expected,
with weakening winds and less falling/blowing snow. We can
replace the dying warning with an advisory there, matching MQT,
into the early overnight.
A few northern lower MI warning counties were also set to go
down at 7pm. Alpena Co, now that the back edge of synoptic snow
has exited, has seen considerable improvement. They have been
switched to the advisory group, which goes down at 7 pm.
Crawford and Missaukee Cos warnings were extended thru 06Z, to
match the other still-warned counties. Missaukee in particular
is still at the business end of the dominant band in nw lower
MI. Again, winds will be gradually decreasing, allowing
conditions to slowly improve.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
Quite the impressive system impacting the region today. Sub 980mb
surface low now well off to our east into western Quebec, with still
deepening mid level parent lagging a bit behind across eastern
Ontario. Combination of strong pressure gradient and rather intense
cold air advection/deepening boundary layer helping drive some very
impressive winds, with frequent gusts up and over 40 mph earlier
this afternoon...with some topping 50. Deep dynamics and moisture
plume steadily departing to our east, but a blossoming lake response
is still delivering some pretty decent snow showers...especially in
our snow belt locations. Combination of that snow and those gusty
winds definitely resulting is some localized blizzard
conditions/near whiteouts in those more open and exposed areas.
Definitely do not recommend any unnecessary travel the remainder of
this afternoon into early evening.
System will continue to lose its grip on our weather tonight as it
pinwheels further up into eastern Canada. Fast moving wave within
strong northwest flow aloft set to arrive by later Tuesday, helping
reinvigorate what should be some lingering lake-driven snows.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Lingering impacts from winter storm tonight, with a transitioning to
snow amounts from next wave arriving later Tuesday.
Details:
Still some significant travel impacts expected into this evening.
Ongoing snows will continue to transition to a more pure lake effect
variety this evening as synoptic moisture contribution is totally
lost. Lake parameters not impressive at all, with very shallow
convective cloud depths and very dry conditions above this
convective layer. Simple persistence will perhaps bring an inch or
two of additional snow...most this evening...in the north-northwest
snow belts of northwest lower Michigan. However, while steadily
decreasing, winds will remain gusty tonight. This will continue to
produce some blowing and drifting snow in those more open areas.
Looking at lows tonight mostly in the teens, with wind chill
readings on either side of zero by a few degrees.
Expect light lake snows to continue through Tuesday morning with
minimal accumulations. Parameters begin to change heading into the
afternoon as weak mid level disturbance and attendant plume of
deeper moisture arrive. While convective depths don`t really
increase, seeder feeder processes from near saturated conditions
above the convective layer and increasing omega in the dendritic
growth zone should help lake snows to grow upscale. Again, nothing
too significant, but could see a few inches by evening in those
northwest flow snow belt locations. Just some scattered much lighter
snow showers elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday mostly in the lower to
middle 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
A period of cold weather as persistent troughing dominates our
weather through the rest of the work week. Troughing begins to abate
some heading in the weekend, allowing temperatures to modify a bit.
Cold temperatures and passing weak disturbances will again support
some periodic chances for lake snows through the period.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Main focus on more lake enhancement Tuesday night and Wednesday as
yet another fast moving shortwave trough races across the region.
Details:
Tuesday afternoons clipper-type system looks to be quickly followed
by another Tuesday night into Wednesday. Convective cloud depths do
look to increase a bit during this period, with more seeder-feeder
processes from mid level moisture. Could definitely be looking at a
period of more organized and robust lake snows heading into
Wednesday...especially with a more veered wind profile suggesting
some Lake Superior contribution into northern Lake Michigan.
Wouldn`t be at all surprised to see several inches of new snow...
heaviest into northwest lower Michigan. Evidence for more quick
moving waves at various times for the rest of the period, although
currently none of which look overly impressive. Of course, any
passing waves will help with lake snows, so something to monitor as
we round out the week into the weekend. Temperatures will run
several degrees below normal Wednesday through Saturday, with highs
in the teens to lower 20s (Thursday looks particularly cold, with
widespread highs only in the teens). Some modification looks
possible Sunday and Monday, with highs returning to more normal
levels. Overnight lows in the single digits and teens through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
As low pressure continues to move away from northern MI,
conditions are seeing some improvement. Snow/winds/BLSN are
all diminishing with time. This progress will be somewhat slow,
and several more hours of IFR conditions are expected at
CIU/PLN/TVC. Otherwise MVFR will be most common for late tonight
into midday Tuesday. Late Tuesday, another round of snow showers
should break out, with IFR conditions returning.
Blustery nw winds continue tonight, though wind speeds will
gradually decrease.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018-
020>023-025>028-031>033-098-099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ024-
029-030-034>036-041-042.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086>088-
095>097.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion