268
FXUS63 KAPX 171907
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Combination of moderate to heavy wet snow and at least
  moderate icing will result in hazardous to dangerous travel
  Tuesday night through Wednesday night across parts of northern
  Michigan.

- Another system will bring wintry impacts to northern Michigan
  to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Not a whole lot of change from previous
forecasts with respect to the overall pattern synopsis and forecast.
Brief mid-upper level ridging continues to cross the area today
through this evening in response to upstream energy digging across
the western third of the CONUS. Energy on the leading edge of
upstream troughing will trek northeastward into the northern
Plains/upper MS Valley with attendant deepening low pressure
expected to be situated over central/southern MN by 12z Wednesday.
Strong isentropic ascent will be realized locally ahead of this
feature with a wintry mix of precipitation and associated impacts
starting tonight and continuing through the day Wednesday.

Beyond this system above, another piece of energy is expected to
eject from the Intermountain West with lee side cyclogenesis
underway across the Plains by Wednesday night into Thursday. This
system expected to track from the mid-MS Valley into the lower Great
Lakes by later Thursday-Friday, likely bringing another round of
potentially impactful wintry weather to at least parts of northern
MI. Uncertainty grows beyond Friday with respect to how the pattern
evolves through the weekend into early next week, but additional
upstream energy may provide additional chances for wintry weather at
times across parts of the nation`s midsection.

Forecast Details:

Impactful snow and ice tonight - Wednesday: Overall, not a ton of
change to the overnight shift`s thinking with respect to snow/ice
accumulation across northern MI. Latest confidence continues to lie
in solution that spreads widespread precip from southwest to
northeast across northern MI tonight, mainly after 06z, and
continues most widespread through Wednesday morning before the axis
of heaviest precip begins to shift north.

Heavy/wet snow: Favored areas for moderate to heavy wet snow
continue to be across the Straits into the eastern U.P. and from
near the tip of the mitt to across a section of northeast lower to
near Alpena. Accumulations across these areas generally varying from
4-8" although some locally higher amounts remain possible. Did see a
slight sag south in better snow accum with a couple of inches now
possible as far south as Gaylord to Mio to Harrisville.

Icing: On that southern periphery of heaviest snow and points
farther south, best potential exists for 0.10"+ of ice. This
generally stretching from far northwest lower
(Petoskey/Charlevoix) and points south and east to Houghton
Lake, West Branch and Standish. Still signals that localized
areas within this swath of icing could see significant icing
near or slightly in excess of 0.25". These areas obviously
favored for less snow, but could mix with accumulating sleet at
times. Low confidence in significant (0.5"+) sleet, but even a a
few tenths of sleet can exacerbate hazardous travel conditions.
Did toy with the idea of adding Wexford County into the Winter
Weather Advisory for icing as latest forecast has far eastern
portions of the county with up to a tenth of an inch of ice and
given terrain through that county, there`ll likely be some spots
that ice up, but simply not enough confidence to warrant that
at this time.

Winds: Easterly winds intensify tonight, mainly after 09z, and
remain strongest through early afternoon Wednesday. Highest gusts of
around 35 mph favored across far northwest lower, the tip of the
mitt and eastern U.P. While SLRs for areas that see snow will be low
(under 10:1) limiting blowing/drifting, significantly reduced
visibility and hazardous to dangerous travel is expected. For icing
areas, these gusty winds may amplify impacts, especially with icing
on tree limbs/power lines with at least scattered power outages
anticipated (exponentially more likely in areas that see higher end
ice accum.).

Did contemplate an upgrade to ice storm warning across a handful of
counties across northern lower, but much as the overnight shift
dealt with, confidence in realizing >0.25" ice is low. Otherwise, no
changes were made to inherited headlines. That said, the night shift
will have another crack at potential upgrades tonight coinciding
with precip arrival. Beyond the steadiest precip lifting north
across much of the area by early Wednesday afternoon, light mixed
snow/freezing rain may continue across parts of eastern upper into
the evening with a lingering freezing drizzle threat across portions
of northern lower. All in all, not a fun day tomorrow to be out and
about with hazardous to dangerous travel conditions expected across
the majority of northern Michigan.

Late week wintry weather: Confidence continues to increase in
additional wintry impacts late this week, potentially as early as
Thursday night, but more so during the day Friday. In general, a
favored solution brings low pressure from the mid-MS Valley into the
Great Lakes, but just where that system tracks remains low
confidence. Consensus generally has two solutions -- a more
southeastern track across the southern Great Lakes/southeast MI/Ohio
Valley, which would result in light to moderate snow across much of
northern MI. Or, a more amplified westerly solution with low
pressure through WI -- this would bring about additional wintry mix
(ice and snow) concerns. All in all, another round of wintry weather
expected, but lots of details to iron out with respect to what form
precip falls in and resultant impacts.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

BR and FG currently at KCIU, KAPN, and KPLN will slowly improve
this afternoon while KTVC and KMBL will remain VFR through 00Z
Wednesday. Condtions deteriorate overnight as incoming RA and SN
will lower CIG`S and VSBY`s at all sites through the remainder
of the TAF period (mostly LIFR across the region). Chances of
ZR and PL remain possible at all TAF sites besides KMBL
overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ016>018-023-024-086>088-095>097.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ021-022-027>030-033>036-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ041-042.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...SJC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion